Two Good Reader Questions Answered

In general, I encourage questions on this blog and others as it is important for the English language blogging community to think about these issues, read each others blogs, and engage in a dialogue. As a result, I will give my thoughts on two good questions posed by readers -

First, Ash asks: "What is your take on Kasparov".

I think that Kasparov has little chance of winning and is more of a factor in the western press than in Russia at the moment. I am also worried by the coalition that he has assembled (see my previous post on its association with fringe, neo nazi, anti-kremlin groups).


Second, Jesse Heath asks:
"What is best for Russia at this point? I myself am at a loss - it would be nice if [strong] democratic institutions sprung up in the next several months, but this is wishful thinking. I think the best result is for Putin to become PM. All this 'Putin for Tsar' business is coming from entrenched interests worried about where their income sources will go under a [*****] Administration. A balancing of the Executive and Legislative branches could result from a Putin prime ministership, though he will surely be roundly criticized for doing this (but won't he be criticized no matter what he does?)."

I think that the real struggle for power is going on within the Kremlin right now regarding positioning for the post-Putin presidency. I do think that currently the Kremlin is leaving a few options on the table - one of which is Putin not stepping down (my guess is that no one expected the instability that has arisen from Putin's departure from the Presidency). Evidence of the fact that a third term is still in the cards is the increasing number of staged meetings (Putingi as they are being called) where people are lobbying for a third term. Also, there still has been no mention of a successor - time is growing short and I do think that the Kremlin (and Putin) are keeping their options open in order to be able to respond to events.

Overall, I think in the long term Russia is better off (in terms of long term stability) strengthening its institutions and if Putin were able to take up the Prime MInistership and use his supermajority in the Duma to amend the constitution to strengthen the Duma (and weaken the Presidency), I think that Russian institutions would be more stable and less subject to executive capture. This is unlikely, though, and I think it much more likely that Putin will seek to use informal power (perhaps by convening one of these old Tsarist land assemblies) to ratify Putin's Plan and ensure his position as a national leader. Furthermore, there is more evidence now to suggest that Putin is undermining the legitimacy of institutions in Russia by continuing to strengthen the cult that surrounds him. As to the cult, its worth visiting a website called "For Putin" (Za Putina) which seems to be coordinating much of this Putin cult. It struck me as stylishly put together and beautifully designed - there is no doubt that this administration is learning quickly the power of the web and web video (and using these tools to promote Putin).