Speculation is running rampant about the Putin's appointment of Viktor Zubkov as the new Prime Minister. Most of the western press is now speculating about what most of the Russian insiders, independent press, and blogs have been talking about for at least a year - that the two major contenders for the Russian presidency - Medvedev (head of Gazprom and also first deputy prime minister) and Ivanov (also first deputy prime minister and leader of the security services branch of the Russian government) are not the only two men who might succceed Putin (potentially because they threaten Putin's return to the political scene in 2012 by their powerful positions and reputation) and, as a result, Putin might appoint a little known successor to succeed him so that he can stay in power in an informal way.
Zubkov is an interesting appointment as a presidential successor - he has a background with Putin in the St. Petersburg and is loyal. Otherwise, there is some debate about whether he is unaligned (netural) or represents one of the factions within the Russian government. It seems to me, although he is touted as being neutral, that he is much more likely to lean toward the siloviki (security services, former KGB wing) faction within the Putin government. This is suggested by rumors that he is a close ally of Sechin (the leader of the siloviki faction) and that he was involved in financial invstigations - a favored method of intimidation and control by the siloviki. Also, he has a mafia-like connection to the siloviki: his daughter is married to the son of the current Russian defense minister - Serdyukov (see my own blog entry on Serdyukov earlier this year).
However, of course, the big question that still needs to be asked is whether this guy would win a general election versus a communist candidate and more than likely a candidate from A Just Russia party - after all, Russia remains at least a formal democracy. Pushing a guy with little support - even with a great media push and all the tools of the Kremlin in support -might introduce more risks that a Putin-ite will not become the next president (a risk that Putin wishes to minimize while also maximizing his control over the successor, so that he will have the option to come back to power in 2012).
Gazeta.ru has interviewed different people in Russia are suggesting that the appointment of Zubkov is not the creation of a Putin successor. A couple of the better responses are produced below:
Aleksei Mukhin argues that this is part of the further consolidation of power by the siloviki in Putin's administration (since Fradkin was widely considered as being a technocrat and not a serious security services man and Zubkov represents the loyal security services man).
Makarkin argues that he is a figure who Putin trusts fully but that at the moment it is unlikely that he can be considered a successor to Putin because he is not well known.
What is likely at this early stage is that he is not a potential successor. however, things might change - when Putin was appointed by Yeltsin to be Prime Minister, Putin was unkonwn but made his reputation investigating the bombings of buildings in Russia allegedly by Chechen extremists and appearing tough in the lead up to the general presidential election - the question then becomes whether Zubkov will try a similar strategy. This is unlikely I think.
MOre likely, Zubkov is a trusted associate of Putin who is also a reflection of the growing power of the security services people in the Russian government. This says more about Putin's attempt to consolidate power than about a new successor. Keep tuned though, it is gonna get more interesting.
0 comments:
Post a Comment