20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall

Today is the 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall, an event that has taken on a great narrative significance in America as a near religious, revolutionary triumph of good over evil, Reaganism over soft liberalism, freedom over tyranny. It spawned books (The Triumph of Liberal Revolution), ideological movements (neoconservatism), and intellectual movements (transitology).

Douthat of the NY Times captures this naive romanticization perfectly in his column today:(http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/09/opinion/09douthat.html):

By rights, the Ninth of November should be a holiday across the Western world, celebrated with the kind of pomp and spectacle reserved for our own Independence Day.
Never has liberation come to so many people all at once — to Eastern Europe’s millions, released from decades of bondage; to the world, freed from the shadow of nuclear Armageddon; and to the democratic West, victorious after a century of ideological struggle.
Never has so great a revolution been accomplished so swiftly and so peacefully, by ordinary men and women rather than utopians with guns.

Despite a flood of ink from political columnists hoping to make a Disney narrative out of the fall of the Berlin Wall, very little of the real published empirical historical work exploring this complex social and political transformation has permeated the general consciousness. This lack of western understanding has helped contribute to real problems and misunderstandings in American foreign policy (it is no coincidence that the ideological origins of the neoconservative movement lie in the fall of the Soviet Union).





A recent book, Uncivil Society by Stephen Kotkin, hopes to fill this void, pointing to a far more realistic, but far less politically sexy, answer for why the Berlin Wall fell: the system cannibalized itself.





"Uncivil Society" examines the end of Soviet-style socialism in three exemplary bloc states: East Germany, Romania and Poland. Kotkin complains that on this subject most analysts "continue to focus disproportionately, even exclusively, on the 'opposition,' which they fantasize as a 'civil society.'" With the exception of Poland, where the Solidarity movement constituted a real counterpart to the Communist regime, this notion of a valiant resistance who modeled a better order and spearheaded the mass uprisings of 1989 falls, in Kotkin's view, "into the realm of fiction." And, while he credits the West for its "steadfast" containment of the Soviet Union ("whatever the mistakes and excesses"), Kotkin doesn't seem to regard direct Western action as a significant cause of the collapse of the USSR, either. Instead, he views the whole thing as an "implosion"; the Soviet-style establishments ("uncivil societies") simply gave up the ghost -- in some cases even helping the dissolution along. (quoted from http://www.salon.com/books/feature/2009/10/14/uncivil_society/)

Russian Constitutional Court Cites the European Convention on Human Rights in Landmark Ruling on Illegal Detentions

On June 16, the Constitutional court issued a ruling in a case brought by three people arrested by Russian police in recent political protests. The Court criticized the current process whereby Russian courts - despite thousands of claims - regularly dismiss claims by Russians detained or held by the Russian police (often on the grounds of jaywalking or disturbing the peace).  In a strongly worded ruling, they ruled that Russian legislators need to bring the Russian Administrative Code into line with the European Convention on Human Rights. 

This ruling comes against a backdrop of a Russian justice system that does little to allow Russian citizens to sue the government for arbitrary actions.  A holdover from previous Tsarist and Soviet days, the relative lack of responsibility that officials enjoy has been a constant source of criticism from human rights watchers in Russia.  The Court's decision seems to be an attempt by the Court to finally address this problem and pressure the legislature into building a real framework for holding the actions of Russian officialdom to account.  The real question, as with many questions in Russia, is whether this ruling will be enforced.  In other words, will the Russian legislature pass laws that ensure that people detained by police have recourse to sue the government.  

It seems unlikely.  The Russian President's permanent representative on the Court Mikhail Krotov sought to downplay these detentions hinting that they were not a big deal: "If the police ruin someone's suit or hold them for three hours - is this really serious damage?" He went on to say that the Court had overstepped its bounds in suggesting to lawmakers how to legislate.  Given the power that the Russian presidency has over the Parliament and the executive branches of power, major changes seem unlikely in the future.  

However, even given this, glimmers of change do seem to be on the horizon.  

The Russian prosecutors office (prokuratura) supported the Court's decision, arguing that every person who is detained illegally should have the right to challenge this detention in court.

Thus, there does seem to be some growing support for the creation of a real mechanism for administrative justice in Russia.  

 

Obama drawing on Soviet propaganda techniques

Max Weber reminds us that there are three types of authority: traditional, charismatic, and rational-legal.  Presidential campaigns are about establishing some kind of legitimate authority - something that is called, looking presidential.   

Obama, with his lack of traditional authority (George W. Bush derived much of his authority from this type of authority) and youth and inexperience (rational-legal authority was weak, particularly in contrast with Hilary Clinton) wisely drew on his charisma as a way of building his authority and winning the presidency.  Thus, we have seen chants, spontaneous outbreaks of cultish like following.  Charismatic leaders also often come along at times of trouble or crisis; thus, the financial crisis, therefore, helped push Obama as well.  

Russia has a long tradition of charismatic leadership and iconography. 

And one of the most successful Obama poster makers, Shepard Fairey, is deliberately drawing on Russian constructivist posters from the Soviet period in his portrayal of Obama.  Fascinating stuff. 

The poster above has become an iconic poster, popping up all over the US during the campaign. 

Interestingly, this link has become a major point of talk for the right wing bloggers as it is seen as further proof of Obama's dangerous, communist tendencies, etc.. 

This is an absurd argument: in fact, as we know from Soviet history, charismatic leadership campaigns always start from the bottom up: Nina Tumarkin's book on Lenin is a good example - the Lenin cult was initially a bottom up, largely spontaneous movement.  Then it is harnessed.  

This seems to be what has happened here: this was a largely spontaneous movement that has since be harnessed by the Obama campaign in service of that most American of outcomes - winning.  McCain initially sought to make fun of this move with his ad comparing Obama to Paris Hilton and other celebrities (a move that Plouffe has since revealed was the most frightening to the campaign).  

But later on, he chose Sarah Palin, who had a similar charismatic appeal (and who created a similar cultish following).  

So, charismatic leadership won the day in the richest country in the world; so much for arguments that modernity and progress are getting us away from old methods of legitimacy creation. 

The Petersburg Constitutional Court

The Constitutional COurt has now officially moved to St. Petersburg. Today is the first official day of residence for the 19 Constitutional Court judges who have moved from their previous court in Moscow to St. Petersburg.

All 19 Judges agreed to make the trip to the northern capital and they are awaited by a luxurious (if also rather creepy) set of cottage residences in the prestigious Krestovskii Island where they will all live in close proximity (one road leads to their little village). They also have a special sauna and medical facilities.

In what might suggest the continuing encroachment of executive power on the other branches of power in the Russian government, the ever expanding Presidential administration is moving into the former offices that the Constitutional court occupied until now.

At the same time, the move will lead to a net decrease in the number of assistants who aid the Judges in their work. A new (but decreased) number will be taken from the law faculty of St. Petersburg University (connected with Putin and others).

It remains to be seen whether geography really is destiny in determining the influence of the Constitutional court. If it is, the Constitutional Court has been both sidelined and placed in a tightly controlled setting where they can be controlled (the fact that they are all to live in such close proximity is disturbing).

Nash Dom Gazprom: Medvedev's Energy Policy

Many have speculated that the election of Medvedev would be a boon for Gazprom in its ongoing business war with Rosneft over the Russian hydrocarbon industry. Today's news suggested that they are right.

Today, Gazprom received the massive gas field of Chayanda (which has been classified as a field of strategic significance) without a tender. This flew directly in the face of Yuri Trutnev and the Ministry of Natural Resource's view that this massive field should be offered in a tender - therefore, giving Rosneft some leverage to gain more control of this field.

An interesting question to follow now will be the fate of Rosneft during a Medvedev administration. Will the Sechin-led Rosneft be downgraded and to be eventually absorbed by the national champion, Gazprom? Putin tried to merge Gazprom and Rosneft and failed - will Medvedev have the power to finally do this?

What about the publicly owned Lukoil? And Surgutneftegaz, which has remained very loyal to the Kremlin?

Today's move suggests that Medvedev is going to be aggressive in the pushing the interests of Gazprom - it is now possible that Gazprom will receive other gas fields without a tender (including Sakhalin 3).

Russian political analysts have pointed out that the continuing influence of Putin in the Kremlin will ensure that Medvedev will not be able to alter the balance between Rosneft and Gazprom too much...

Either way, Rosneft is on the back foot right now. What happens with Sakhalin 3 will give us more information.

Stay tuned.

Uzbekistan and Western Human Rights Policy

Worsening conditions in Afghanistan have led America (through NATO) to once again engage with Uzbekistan.

1. History of relations

Readers will remember that the West (and America in particular) had engaged seriously with Uzbekistan during the post 9/11 buildup to the invasion of Afghanistan (Uzbekistan became a critical base for American warplanes). however, this accord broke down after America and the West widely criticized Uzbekistan for the human rights violations that accompanied the Andizhan massacre in 2005. This had led Karimov, the Uzbek President, to expel the Americans from the base in Uzbekistan and move more closely to Russia and China (partly facilitated by the Shanghai COoperation Organization). However, since that break down of relations, in the last year both the West and Karimov have had an increased dialogue.

2. Why? What has changed? Why have relations improved?

Reuters attributes this to an attempt to promote democracy:

"The West has stepped up contacts with Uzbekistan over the past year, hoping dialogue would lead the nation towards more democracy. U.S. Admiral William Fallon visited Tashkent in January in a first high-level attempt to mend ties since 2005."

I disagree. More likely, this is a realization by NATO and America that the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan is more important to their national interest than the human rights record of Uzbekistan. Indeed, there have been few - if any - moves by Uzbekistan to increase its pitiful human rights record since the dialogue began.

"I want to create a holiday atmosphere. There will be music playing everywhere. "

You'd hardly know it but the Russian Presidential elections are tomorrow, Sunday March 2nd. The most intriguing part of the day will be the turnout - what percentage of Russians will turn out and vote knowing that Dmitry Medvedev will be the next President?

One of the state owned television stations is running a story about the different attractions that are being offered at different polling stations to encourage Russians to come out and vote.

Here are a few of them:

1. In St. Petersburg, voters will get free disks and books signed by Russian actors, singers, and sportsmen.

2. In the Samara Oblast, they will be showing cartoons about heros going to vote at the polling stations in order to encourage parents with small children to come. They will also be handing out free scarfs to the children.

3. In Nizhnyi Novgorod, they will be entering people who vote into a lottery to win a new car. What car, you ask? Nothing less than the pride of the Russian automobile industry: a new Volga.

4. In Khaborovsk, every voter will be given a token which they will then be able to give to their children. The children will then bring this to school and the teachers will collect them. The school that collects the most will get a free excursion to the theater and will be recognized in the newspaper.

5. In Kazan, they will open a polling station in the major train station there where thousands of people will be traveling.

6. In Kaliningrad, all public transport will be free for the day. One of the authorities in Kaliningrad said "I want to create a holiday atmosphere. There will be music playing everywhere. "

7. In Sochi, voters will also be voting for the mascot for the Winter Olympic Games in 2014.

8. In Karachaevo-Cherkisia, all voters will get free haircuts.

9. Finally, for those who don't turn on the tv, radio, open the window, or read the newspaper, every mobile phone subscriber in Russia will receive a text message saying "Everyone to the polling stations!"